For fund managers and planners: volatility priced against actual, how much the 50 stocks move together, dispersion, concentration, drawdown, the bond-yield gap and the record of each market state. Every figure describes the past.
Realised volatility is how much the NIFTY 50 has actually moved day to day, scaled to a year. India VIX is how much option prices expect it to move over the next month.
VIX normally sits a little above realised: buyers of protection pay a premium. A wide premium means options are pricing in more fear than the market has shown. A premium near zero or below means the market has been moving more than options expected, which tends to come with stress.
This is the average correlation between the 50 stocks, worked out from how much the index moved against how much its stocks moved on their own. Near 0, stocks follow their own news. Near 1, they move as one.
High co-movement usually means a market driven by one big force (flows, rates, global risk) rather than by company news. Stock-picking matters least then, and diversification inside the index helps least.
Range over the year: 0.06 to 0.43.
Each day this measures how spread out the 50 stocks' moves are (the standard deviation across stocks), then averages the last 20 days.
Read it with co-movement. Low co-movement with high dispersion is a stock-picker's market: winners and losers separate. High co-movement with low dispersion is a macro market: everything moves together.
| Over | Index | Average stock | Median stock | Stocks up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 sessions | +11.15% | +8.35% | +8.48% | 45/49 |
| 60 sessions | +3.53% | +0.41% | −0.03% | 24/49 |
The effective number of stocks is 1 ÷ the sum of squared weights: how many equally weighted stocks would give the same concentration. Fifty stocks with a lower effective number means a few names set the index's direction.
When the index beats its average and median stock, a few heavyweights are carrying it. When the average stock beats the index, the rally (or the fall) is wider than the headline number shows.
The earnings yield is the P/E turned upside down: what the index earns for every ₹100 invested. Set against the 10-year government bond's yield, it shows what shares earn over the safe return. A low or negative gap means investors accept less from shares than from bonds, betting on growth.
The NIFTY 50 is its earnings × the P/E paid for them. Today that is 1,227 of earnings per unit of the index × a P/E of 20.49 = 25,144. The grid below works the same sum for other earnings and other P/Es. It is arithmetic, not a forecast: it does not say which cell is likely.
For the index to stay at today's 25,144:
| P/E | Earnings −10% | Earnings −5% | Earnings 0% | Earnings +5% | Earnings +10% | Earnings +15% | Earnings +20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.7 90th percentile | 25,071 0% | 26,463 +5% | 27,856 +11% | 29,249 +16% | 30,642 +22% | 32,035 +27% | 33,428 +33% |
| 22.4 75th percentile | 24,739 −2% | 26,114 +4% | 27,488 +9% | 28,863 +15% | 30,237 +20% | 31,611 +26% | 32,986 +31% |
| 21.7 median | 23,966 −5% | 25,298 +1% | 26,629 +6% | 27,961 +11% | 29,292 +16% | 30,624 +22% | 31,955 +27% |
| 20.6 25th percentile | 22,751 −10% | 24,015 −4% | 25,279 +1% | 26,543 +6% | 27,807 +11% | 29,071 +16% | 30,335 +21% |
| 20.5 today | 22,630 −10% | 23,887 −5% | 25,144 0% | 26,402 +5% | 27,659 +10% | 28,916 +15% | 30,173 +20% |
| 20.0 10th percentile | 22,089 −12% | 23,316 −7% | 24,543 −2% | 25,770 +2% | 26,997 +7% | 28,224 +12% | 29,452 +17% |
Each cell: today's earnings per unit, grown by the column's figure, × the row's P/E; below it, the distance from today's 25,144. The P/E rows are where NSE's published NIFTY 50 P/E has actually been over 408 sessions, 19 Mar 2025 to 13 Nov 2026 (lowest 19.0, highest 23.0).
Type a level you have seen quoted anywhere. This shows how much higher or lower than today's earnings would give that level, at each P/E above.
Any index level is a pair: how much the 50 companies earn, and what investors pay for each rupee of it. The grid shows the level for each pair; the reverse check shows what a given level needs.
It does not forecast earnings or the P/E, and no cell is a target or a view. The P/E ranges are history, and the next stretch need not stay inside them. Earnings growth across the top is a range for the arithmetic, not an estimate.
Earnings here are NSE's: the index level ÷ its published P/E, trailing four quarters. For the P/E measured other ways (core earnings, without banks, the median stock), see the Nifty P/E page.
| State | Sessions on record | 5 sessions later: median | higher | 20 sessions later: median | higher | Median deepest dip within 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Funded rally | 33 | −0.28% | 31% | −2.35% | 33% | −3.10% |
| Hollow rally | 124 | −0.52% | 36% | +0.17% | 52% | −2.21% |
| Quiet accumulation | 38 | +0.09% | 53% | +0.37% | 51% | −1.82% |
| Real retreat | 162 | +0.26% | 57% | +0.63% | 63% | −1.20% |
| Balanced | 13 | −0.15% | 46% | −0.19% | 42% | −2.21% |
| Every session | 386 | −0.10% | 49% | +0.55% | 59% | · |
The timeline shows the Bhav Dhan state for each session. The table shows what the NIFTY 50 did in the 5 and 20 sessions after each state, from 19 Mar 2025 to 13 Nov 2026, against every session as a baseline.
It is history, not a forecast: the periods overlap, the sample is short, and the next stretch need not look like the last. Treat a state whose numbers barely differ from "every session" as telling you nothing extra.
Sentiment and money-flow readings from exchange and depository data, scored by published rules. Source: NSE, NSDL; analysis by FinMinutes. FinMinutes is a financial data and analytics platform; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.