GIFT Nifty and Asia point to a softer open after a 1.58% rally
The Nikkei fell 3.17% and the Kospi 1.28%, and GIFT Nifty is 0.4% lower. Yesterday's large FII buying figure is provisional, and the final NSDL number is far smaller.
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Where we stand
NIFTY 50 closed at 23,810.85 on Tuesday, up 1.58%. Our composite read still calls it a real retreat, with the price score at 41 and the money score at 45. That label sits oddly against a rising index and FIIs buying ₹6,837 cr in cash, while DIIs sold ₹3,679 cr.
Read the FII figure with care. NSDL's final FPI equity number is +₹143 cr, against NSE's provisional +₹6,837 cr, and block deals and primary-market money usually explain gaps like this. FIIs also added 30,442 contracts net long in index futures, yet they are only 12% long while retail clients are 77% long. When the two sides disagree this widely, one of them is wrong.
Overnight
Three moves matter for India today. Asia is selling off with conviction, with the Nikkei down 3.17% and the Kospi down 1.28%. GIFT Nifty is at 23,716.5, down 0.4% and below NIFTY's last close, which is the nearest read of the opening gap and points to a softer start.
The US dollar index fell 0.5% to 101.36. A stronger dollar usually pressures the rupee and foreign flows, so this move runs the other way, and USD/INR is flat at 94.73. The rest is background: the S&P 500 is up 0.36%, the Nasdaq up 0.83%, the Dow down 0.38%, the Hang Seng down 0.42%, Brent down 0.51% at $103.07, gold up 0.28%, and the US 10-year yield is at 4.952%, up 6 basis points.
| Last | Change | For India today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 61,079.07 | −3.17% | matters Asia is moving with conviction this morning |
| Kospi | 5,576.33 | −1.28% | matters Asia is moving with conviction this morning |
| US dollar index | 101.36 | −0.50% | matters a stronger dollar usually pressures the rupee and foreign flows |
| GIFT Nifty | 23,716.50 | −0.40% | matters GIFT Nifty against NIFTY's last close: the nearest read of the opening gap |
| S&P 500 | 7,568.92 | +0.36% | background |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,372.01 | +0.83% | background |
| Dow Jones | 51,786.72 | −0.38% | background |
| Hang Seng | 23,427.37 | −0.42% | background |
| Brent crude | 103.07 | −0.51% | background |
| Gold | 3,951.30 | +0.28% | background |
| USD/INR | 94.73 | +0.00% | background |
| US 10-year yield | 4.952 | +6 bp | background |
Last available quotes at build time; Asian markets may still be trading.
Today's agenda
22 companies hold results meetings today. They include Afcons Infrastructure, Apollo Tyres, Aptus Value Housing Finance, BSE, Balrampur Chini Mills, Biocon, Chalet Hotels, Exide Industries, FSN E-Commerce Ventures, Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers, Housing & Urban Development Corporation, IRCON International, JM Financial, JSW Dulux and Kirloskar Oil Engines.
- 22 results board meetings: Afcons Infrastructure Ltd., Apollo Tyres Ltd., Aptus Value Housing Finance India Ltd., BSE Ltd., Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd., Biocon Ltd., Chalet Hotels Ltd., Exide Industries Ltd., FSN E-Commerce Ventures Ltd., Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers Ltd., Housing & Urban Development Corporation Ltd., IRCON International Ltd., JM Financial Ltd., JSW Dulux Ltd., Kirloskar Oil Eng Ltd. and more
What would change the read
If FIIs are net buyers in the cash market again, it would mean the rally is getting funded, not just priced; if not, the money still is not following prices. If FIIs sell and DIIs buy at least as much, it would mean domestic money is absorbing the whole of the foreign selling; if not, domestic buying falls short of it. DIIs were net sellers yesterday.
If India VIX closes below 15.72, it would mean demand for protection is easing; if not, traders are still paying up for protection.
- IfFIIs turn net buyers in the cash market: the rally would be getting funded, not just priced. If not: the money still is not following prices.
- IfDIIs buy at least as much as FIIs sell: domestic money would be absorbing the whole of the foreign selling. If not: domestic buying would fall short of the foreign selling.
- IfIndia VIX closes lower than the day before: demand for protection would be easing. If not: traders would still be paying up for protection.
Tonight's Close scores each of these.