Crude crashes 11% and GIFT Nifty points to a higher open
Brent fell 11.02% overnight, a move that matters for an oil-importing market. GIFT Nifty is above NIFTY's last close, while Kospi fell 2.41%.
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Where we stand
NIFTY 50 closed Monday at 23,440.8, up 1.68%. FIIs bought ₹3,115 cr in cash and added 7,554 contracts net long index futures, so both legs point the same way. DIIs were net sellers of ₹392 cr.
Positioning is split. Retail clients are 80% long in index futures and FIIs are 11% long, and when the two disagree this widely, one side is wrong. The sheet's composite tag reads 'real retreat', which sits badly with a 1.68% gain and FII buying, so the price and the flows are the firmer evidence. NSDL's final FPI equity figure (+₹1,134 cr) is ₹1,980 cr below NSE's provisional +₹3,115 cr. Block deals and primary-market money usually explain gaps like this, so the buying may be smaller than it first looked.
Overnight
Crude is the story. Brent fell 11.02% to 104.68. India imports most of its oil, so oil marketers, paints, aviation, tyres and the rupee feel this most. Kospi fell 2.41%, a sharp move that shows Asia trading with conviction this morning. GIFT Nifty is at 23,540.5, up 0.43% and above NIFTY's last close, which is the nearest read of the opening gap.
The rest is background. The S&P 500 fell 0.51%, the Nasdaq 1.07% and the Nikkei 0.33%, while the Dow rose 0.41% and the Hang Seng 0.45%. Gold gained 1.46%, the dollar index rose 0.09% to 101.84, USD/INR eased 0.28% to 94.89 and the US 10-year yield slipped 4 bp to 4.894%.
| Last | Change | For India today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kospi | 5,717.66 | −2.41% | matters Asia is moving with conviction this morning |
| Brent crude | 104.68 | −11.02% | matters India imports most of its oil: oil marketers, paints, aviation, tyres and the rupee feel this |
| GIFT Nifty | 23,540.50 | +0.43% | matters GIFT Nifty against NIFTY's last close: the nearest read of the opening gap |
| S&P 500 | 7,541.40 | −0.51% | background |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,164.36 | −1.07% | background |
| Dow Jones | 51,983.98 | +0.41% | background |
| Nikkei 225 | 63,081.86 | −0.33% | background |
| Hang Seng | 23,498.58 | +0.45% | background |
| Gold | 3,955.90 | +1.46% | background |
| US dollar index | 101.84 | +0.09% | background |
| USD/INR | 94.89 | −0.28% | background |
| US 10-year yield | 4.894 | −4 bp | background |
Last available quotes at build time; Asian markets may still be trading.
Today's agenda
Twenty companies hold results meetings today. The names on the sheet include State Bank of India, AIA Engineering, Anthem Biosciences, Bajaj Holdings & Investment, Bata India, Bayer Cropscience, Chambal Fertilizers & Chemicals, Emcure Pharmaceuticals, Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals, Graphite India, Gujarat Fluorochemicals, Jain Resource Recycling, Linde India, Mahanagar Gas and Minda Corporation.
The weekly expiry is also today.
- Weekly NIFTY expiry
- 20 results board meetings: State Bank of India, AIA Engineering Ltd., Anthem Biosciences Ltd., Bajaj Holdings & Investment Ltd., Bata India Ltd., Bayer Cropscience Ltd., Chambal Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd., Emcure Pharmaceuticals Ltd., Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals Ltd., Graphite India Ltd., Gujarat Fluorochemicals Ltd., Jain Resource Recycling Ltd., Linde India Ltd., Mahanagar Gas Ltd., Minda Corporation Ltd. and more
What would change the read
If FIIs are net buyers in the cash market again, it would mean the rally is getting funded, not just priced; if not, the money still is not following prices. If DIIs buy at least as much as FIIs sell, it would mean domestic money is absorbing the whole of the foreign selling; if not, domestic buying falls short of the foreign selling.
If India VIX closes below its reference level of 15.5, it would mean demand for protection is easing; if not, traders are still paying up for protection.
- IfFIIs turn net buyers in the cash market: the rally would be getting funded, not just priced. If not: the money still is not following prices.
- IfDIIs buy at least as much as FIIs sell: domestic money would be absorbing the whole of the foreign selling. If not: domestic buying would fall short of the foreign selling.
- IfIndia VIX closes lower than the day before: demand for protection would be easing. If not: traders would still be paying up for protection.
Tonight's Close scores each of these.