US yields jump 12 basis points on hot inflation, but Gift Nifty points higher
The US 10-year yield rose to 4.983%, a level that tends to pull foreign money out of emerging markets. Gift Nifty still signals a gap-up start, so today's test is whether flows agree.
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Where we stand
Overnight
The US 10-year yield rose 12 basis points to 4.983%. Higher US yields tend to pull foreign money out of emerging markets, which makes FII flows the key read for India today. Gold fell 1.61% to $4,048.3, which matters for gold financiers and jewellers.
The background moves were mixed. Wall Street closed lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.38% and the Nasdaq down 0.74%. Nikkei and Kospi rose about 0.7%, Hang Seng fell 0.72%, Brent eased 0.28% to $92.31, and the dollar index and USD/INR (93.92) barely moved.
| Last | Change | For India today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 4,048.30 | −1.61% | matters gold financiers and jewellers |
| US 10-year yield | 4.983 | +12 bp | matters higher US yields tend to pull foreign money out of emerging markets |
| S&P 500 | 7,520.93 | −0.38% | background |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,065.88 | −0.74% | background |
| Dow Jones | 52,231.89 | −0.30% | background |
| Nikkei 225 | 60,880.25 | +0.70% | background |
| Hang Seng | 24,380.21 | −0.72% | background |
| Kospi | 5,276.65 | +0.72% | background |
| Brent crude | 92.31 | −0.28% | background |
| US dollar index | 102.25 | +0.02% | background |
| USD/INR | 93.92 | −0.03% | background |
Last available quotes at build time; Asian markets may still be trading.
What changed overnight
The hot US inflation print is the story that matters. It strengthened expectations of a December Fed rate hike, and Fed speakers warned of inflation risks. That ties directly to the jump in US yields and the firmer dollar. Gift Nifty, meanwhile, signals a gap-up start for Indian stocks.
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Asian Markets Today
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LiveMint ↗
8 of 90 items since the last close changed earnings, cash, risk, a sector or the macro picture. The other 82 were previews, recaps, opinion or repeats.
Today's agenda
Hindustan Copper and Triveni Turbine hold results meetings today. Antala Industries, an SME issue with a price band of ₹62–66, lists on the exchange.
- Antala Industries (SME) IPO lists
- 2 results board meetings: Hindustan Copper Ltd., Triveni Turbine Ltd.
What would change the read
If FIIs turn net buyers in the cash market, it would mean the rally is being funded, not just priced; if not, the money still is not following prices. If more than half of the Nifty 500 closes higher, it would mean the move is broad, not carried by a few heavyweights; if not, gains, if any, are narrow.
If India VIX closes lower than the day before, it would mean demand for protection is easing; if not, traders are still paying up for protection.
- IfFIIs turn net buyers in the cash market: the rally would be getting funded, not just priced. If not: the money still is not following prices.
- Ifmore than half of the Nifty 500 closes higher: the move would be broad, not carried by a few heavyweights. If not: gains, if any, would be narrow.
- IfIndia VIX closes lower than the day before: demand for protection would be easing. If not: traders would still be paying up for protection.
Tonight's Close scores each of these.