GIFT Nifty points to a slightly higher open after Friday's funded rally
Asia is strong this morning, but the Nvidia board probe is the risk for tech. The FII cash figure behind Friday's rally is provisional, and the final NSDL number is far smaller.
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Where we stand
The NIFTY 50 closed Friday at 25,030.35, up 2.01%, and the money backed the move. FIIs bought ₹13,750 cr in cash and added 37,022 contracts net long in index futures. DIIs were net sellers of ₹5,969 cr.
Two caveats. NSDL's final FPI equity figure is +₹479 cr, against NSE's provisional +₹13,750 cr, and the primary market (IPOs, QIPs) accounted for +₹490 cr. Retail clients are 65% long in index futures while FIIs are 25% long. When the two sides disagree this widely, one of them is wrong.
Overnight
Four moves matter for India today. The Nikkei is up 3.39% and the Kospi is up 1.75%, so Asia is moving with conviction. Gold is up 1.60% at $4,139.90, which is relevant for gold financiers and jewellers. USD/INR is down 0.60% at 93.90, which matters for importers, exporters and IT services.
GIFT Nifty is at 25,068.50, up 0.15%, against NIFTY's close of 25,030.35. That is the nearest read of the opening gap, and it points to a marginally higher start. The background moves are mixed: Wall Street was split (S&P 500 +0.31%, Nasdaq +1.09%, Dow -0.46%), the Hang Seng is up 0.50%, Brent is down 0.69% at $97.64, the dollar index is down 0.14% at 102.15 and the US 10-year yield is at 4.859%.
| Last | Change | For India today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 59,380.46 | +3.39% | matters Asia is moving with conviction this morning |
| Kospi | 5,148.26 | +1.75% | matters Asia is moving with conviction this morning |
| Gold | 4,139.90 | +1.60% | matters gold financiers and jewellers |
| USD/INR | 93.90 | −0.60% | matters importers, exporters and IT services |
| GIFT Nifty | 25,068.50 | +0.15% | matters GIFT Nifty against NIFTY's last close: the nearest read of the opening gap |
| S&P 500 | 7,376.86 | +0.31% | background |
| Nasdaq Composite | 24,579.42 | +1.09% | background |
| Dow Jones | 51,285.73 | −0.46% | background |
| Hang Seng | 24,603.12 | +0.50% | background |
| Brent crude | 97.64 | −0.69% | background |
| US dollar index | 102.15 | −0.14% | background |
| US 10-year yield | 4.859 | +2 bp | background |
Last available quotes at build time; Asian markets may still be trading.
What changed overnight
The Nvidia story is the one that matters. The company's board is investigating whether CEO Jensen Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence effort, after he acknowledged an affair. There is also talk of congressional scrutiny. Early Asia reports said the news weighed on tech stocks and that US stock futures were under pressure. By 07:44 the Kospi reading was up 1.75%, so the tech damage in Asia has not been broad so far. A leadership question at a company this central to global tech is what Indian IT and tech-linked investors should keep an eye on.
Two company items are worth a line. Bosch approved a 1:5 stock split and a 3:1 bonus issue, subject to shareholder approval, which would turn one share into 20 after a 38% rally in one year. MRF, Cochin Shipyard, Nile, Talbros Automotive Components and EAAA India are due to report Q2 FY27 results this coming week and may declare dividends. The other 82 of the 90 items overnight were noise.
- Changes risk or governanceCan Nvidia Board Remove Jensen Huang Over Affair? Five Scenarios That Could Decide CEO's Future
The Nvidia founder faces an independent board investigation and congressional scrutiny following allegations of a Chinese intelligence operation. Here's what could determine…
NDTV Profit ↗ - Changes risk or governanceNvidia launches investigation into CEO over affair with alleged Chinese spy; Donald Trump calls Jensen Huang ‘honorable’
Nvidia’s board is investigating reports that CEO Jensen Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence effort after he acknowledged an affair with…
LiveMint ↗ - Changes risk or governanceAsian Markets Today: Kospi Falls As Nvidia News Weighs On Tech Stocks, Nikkei Rebounds From Friday's Losses
Asian equities traded mixed on Monday, with Japan leading gains and South Korea extending its decline. US stock futures came under pressure…
NDTV Profit ↗ - Changes risk or governanceNvidia Board to Probe Spying Case After CEO Admits Infidelity
Nvidia Corp.’s board is launching an investigation into whether Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang was targeted by a foreign espionage plot after…
LiveMint ↗ - Changes earningsFiorentina vs Juventus Live Streaming: When And Where To Watch Serie A Match Live In India
Juventus will look to secure back-to-back Serie A wins when they travel to Florence to take on a Fiorentina side still searching…
NDTV Profit ↗ - Changes earningsDividend alert: MRF, Cochin Shipyard, Talbros and others may reward shareholders this week - Check key dates, returns
MRF, Cochin Shipyard, Nile Limited, Talbros Automotive Components and EAAA India are scheduled to report Q2 FY27 results next week and may…
LiveMint ↗ - Changes risk or governanceAmazon Pay's next customers are in small towns, and they want credit
Three in four Amazon Pay customers now live outside India's big cities, says chief executive Vikas Bansal
Business Standard ↗ - Changes earningsBosch bonus issue, stock split: 1 share to become 20 after 38% rally in one year! Check ratio, record date, returns
Bosch approved a 1:5 stock split and a 3:1 bonus issue, subject to shareholder approval. Together, the actions would turn one existing…
LiveMint ↗
8 of 90 items since the last close changed earnings, cash, risk, a sector or the macro picture. The other 82 were previews, recaps, opinion or repeats.
Today's agenda
Olectra Greentech holds its results meeting today. Vedant Poly Fabs Solutions lists on the SME platform, with an issue price band of ₹88 to ₹94.
- Vedant Poly Fabs Solutions (SME) IPO lists
- 1 results board meeting: Olectra Greentech Ltd.
What would change the read
If more than half of the Nifty 500 closes higher, it would mean the move is broad, not carried by a few heavyweights; if not, gains, if any, would be narrow. If India VIX closes lower than the day before (last reading 17.47), it would mean demand for protection is easing; if not, traders would still be paying up for protection.
If FIIs turn net buyers in the cash market again, it would mean the rally is getting funded, not just priced; if not, the money still is not following prices. Friday's provisional ₹13,750 cr figure is the benchmark, and the final NSDL number came in much lower.
- Ifmore than half of the Nifty 500 closes higher: the move would be broad, not carried by a few heavyweights. If not: gains, if any, would be narrow.
- IfIndia VIX closes lower than the day before: demand for protection would be easing. If not: traders would still be paying up for protection.
- IfFIIs turn net buyers in the cash market: the rally would be getting funded, not just priced. If not: the money still is not following prices.
Tonight's Close scores each of these.