Why is Eli Lilly stock down today? The stock of pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly fell more than 7% today after it preannounced lower-than-expected revenue for the 4th quarter. Updates released by the company suggest that Q4 2024 revenue is expected to be approximately $13.5 billion, approximately $400 million below the low end of recently issued financial guidance, also below the street expectations of $13.95bn. Currently, the stock of the company is trading below 7% at 734 USD per share.
Other key updates released by the company
- Eli Lilly expects 2024 revenue to be approximately $45.0 billion for the full year, $4.0 billion above the midpoint of first-time 2024 financial guidance.
- The company anticipates 2025 revenue to be in the range of $58.0 billion to $61.0 billion, growth of 32% at the midpoint compared to expected 2024 revenue
- Lilly anticipates revenue growth contributions in 2025 from new Lilly medicines such as Jaypirca, Ebglyss, Omvoh, and Kisunla; approvals of new indications for existing Lilly medicines; launches of Mounjaro in additional worldwide markets, as well as potential launches of new medicines such as imlunestrant for metastatic breast cancer.
- Incretin market and channel dynamics have been factored into the 2025 revenue guidance range.
- The company expects to bring additional manufacturing capacity online and expects to produce at least 60% more salable doses of incretins in the first half of the year compared to the first half of 2024.
In another update, Eli Lilly informed that it plans to share its full Q4 2024 financial results, including for other metrics included in its financial guidance, and 2025 financial guidance on February 6, 2025.
Why is Eli Lilly stock down today?
Eli Lilly’s weight loss drug sales are below street expectations, For Q4 2024, Lilly expects worldwide revenue to be approximately $13.5 billion including its Mounjaro weight loss treatment generating revenue of $3.5 billion in Q4, it is well below analysts’ mean estimate of $5.35 billion. Eli Lilly’s other major weight-loss drug Zepbound generated sales of $1.9 billion, slightly missing the street estimate of $2.08 billion.
Eli Lilly blamed the shortfall on lower-than-anticipated demand for its weight-loss drugs. “While the U.S. incretin market grew 45% compared to the same quarter last year, our previous guidance had anticipated an even faster acceleration of growth for the quarter. That, in addition to lower-than-expected channel inventory at year-end, contributed to our Q4 results. We continued to make progress on our manufacturing build-out, and U.S. supply across all doses of tirzepatide was available throughout Q4,” said David A. Ricks, Lilly chair and CEO. “The rest of our medicines performed within our expectations.”
Eli Lilly’s 2025 guidance
The company’s 2025 guidance is a positive surprise for the street as the company anticipates 2025 revenue to be in the range of $58.0 billion to $61.0 billion, a growth of 32% at the midpoint compared to the expected 2024 and above analysts’ mean estimate of $58.52 billion revenue.
Eli Lilly’s stock price performance
LLY stock has fallen more than 7% in the last 1 month, and in 3 and 6 months it has given back more than 20%. However, In the last 12 months, it has gained nearly 15%. 52wk Range high low range for the stock is $612.70 – $972.53. Technically, the stock of Eli Lilly is weak as it is going through a corrective phase but $700 -715 is strong support for the stock (38.20% Fib retracement). If broken the stock could fall to $665. On the upside $800 and $1,000 is a strong resistance.
Experts/analysts have a ‘buy’ call on Eli Lilly and the median price target for the next 12 months is close to $1005. While having a buy call experts also caution that in the short term, AI stocks hold more promise and could provide higher returns. Note- Not investment advice, contact your investment advisor before buying/selling.
About Eli Lilly company
Eli Lilly & Co. engages in the discovery, development, manufacture, and sale of pharmaceutical products. The firm’s products consist of diabetes, oncology, immunology, neuroscience, and other products and therapies. The company was founded by Eli Lilly in May 1876 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, IN.
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