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IPO Allotment status check online by PAN number 2025

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IPO-Allotment-status-check-online-by-PAN-number

IPO Allotment status check online by PAN number. Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) can open up numerous opportunities for investors. IPOs allow individuals to invest in companies at the initial offering stage, often bringing strong potential for gains (listings and long-term). However, once you’ve applied for an IPO, one pressing question remains: “Did I receive IPO allotment?” This is where checking your IPO allotment status comes into play.

Here is how to check your IPO allotment status online by PAN number. We’ll explore the available methods, step-by-step instructions, and essential tips to make the process smooth and hassle-free for a first-time IPO investor.

Why Checking IPO Allotment Status is Important

To understand it better, let’s first understand the complete IPO process-

IPO Application Period (Bidding)

  • Offer Document: The issuer company of the IPO releases a Red Herring Prospectus (RHP) or Prospectus containing all the details about the company, the IPO, the price band (minimum and maximum price at which bids can be placed), and the minimum application lot size (a fixed number of shares an investor must apply for).
  • Categories of Investors: Shares are typically reserved for different categories of investors:
    • Retail Individual Investors (RIIs): Individual applicants applying for shares worth up to ₹2,00,000.
    • Non-Institutional Investors (NIIs) / High Net Worth Individuals (HNIs): Individuals, corporate bodies, trusts, etc., applying for shares worth more than ₹2,00,000.
    • Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs): Large institutional investors like mutual funds, foreign institutional investors (FIIs), banks, etc.
    • Anchor Investors: A subset of QIBs who commit to investing a significant amount before the IPO opens to the public, typically getting shares at a fixed price

Post-Subscription Period (Basis of Allotment)

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After the IPO subscription period closes (typically 2-3 days):

Allotment Rules (SEBI Guidelines): The allotment process varies significantly based on the category of investors and whether the IPO is oversubscribed or undersubscribed.

Consolidation of Bids: The Registrar to the Issue collects all valid applications from all categories.

Invalid Applications of an IPO: Applications are rejected if they are:

  • Duplicate applications (using the same PAN).
  • Applications with incorrect Demat account details.
  • Applications below the minimum lot size or outside the price band.
  • Applications with insufficient funds in the bank account (for ASBA).

Final Offer Price (Cut-off Price): For book-built issues (most common IPOs), the final offer price is determined based on the demand received at various price points within the price band. Often, it is the upper end of the price band if the IPO is highly subscribed.

Undersubscribed IPO: If the total demand for shares is less than the shares offered by the issuer company, all valid applicants will receive the full number of shares they applied for (in most cases). (A minimum of 90% subscription is usually required for an IPO to successfully sail through).

Oversubscribed IPO (Most Common Scenario): This is when the demand for shares exceeds the supply. Allotment rules become crucial here to ensure fair distribution. In case of oversubscription, rules are different for different sets of investors-

Retail Individual Investors (RIIs):

  • Minimum One Lot Policy: In case of oversubscription in the RII category, market regulator SEBI mandates that every retail investor who applied with a valid application for at least one lot will get a chance to be allotted at least one lot of shares, provided there are enough shares reserved for this category.
  • Lottery System: If the oversubscription is very high (e.g., more valid RII applicants than available retail lots), a computerized lottery system is used to select the successful applicants who will receive one lot.
  • Pro-rata Allotment (if applicable): If, after allotting one lot to all eligible applicants, there are still remaining shares and eligible applicants, these additional shares are allotted on a proportionate basis. However, the primary focus for RIIs in oversubscribed IPOs is often the lottery for the minimum lot.

Non-Institutional Investors (NIIs):

  • Allotment to NIIs is typically done on a proportionate basis. This means if the NII category is subscribed ‘X’ times, an NII applicant will receive approximately 1/X of the shares they applied for. The higher the subscription, the lower the allotment percentage.

Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs):

  • Allotment to QIBs is also strictly on a proportionate basis in case of oversubscription.
  • Unsubscribed shares in the QIB category generally cannot be reallocated to other categories.

So, you must have understood that securing an allotment in an IPO is a competitive process, especially when the primary issue is oversubscribed. In such cases, knowing your IPO allotment status ensures clarity about the investment. Instead of guessing or waiting for updates from your broker, you have the power to check your status yourself.

Timely information about your allotment also allows you to plan your next steps, whether it’s holding onto the shares for long-term value gain, trading on the listing day, or analyzing potential future investments.

IPO Allotment status check online by PAN number

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Nowadays, checking IPO allotment status is quick and straightforward. There are primarily two trusted methods to check your allotment status online:

  1. Through the registrar’s website.
  2. Through the respective stock exchange’s website (e.g., NSE or BSE).

Additionally, you need minimal information to complete your check. Your PAN number, DP ID, and Client ID serve as the key data points needed to complete this process.

Checking IPO Allotment Status on the Registrar’s Website

Every IPO is managed by a registrar, such as KFin Technologies or Link Intime, which handles the allotment process. Below are the steps to check allotment status through the registrar’s portal:

  1. Go to the Registrar’s Website: Head directly to the registrar’s official portal. KFin Technologies, Link Intime
  2. Locate the IPO Allotment Section: Look for the “Check Allotment Status” or similar link on the homepage. (direct link is provided above)
  3. Enter the Required Details: Input your PAN number, Application ID, or DP ID/Client ID. Some registrars may also ask for the IPO name.
  4. Submit Your Query: Once you’ve entered all the details, click the “Submit” button to view your allotment status.
  5. View Result: The page will display whether you’ve been allotted shares or not.

IPO Allotment Status Check Through the Stock Exchange Website

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Another reliable way to check your IPO allotment status is via the NSE or BSE website. Here’s how you can do it:

Steps for the NSE Website:

  1. Visit the NSE India Website: Go to nseindia.com.
  2. Navigate to the IPO Allotment Section: Look under the “Investors” category for the IPO allotment status tab.
  3. Enter Your Details: Provide your PAN number, Application ID, or DP ID/Client ID along with the IPO name.
  4. Submit and Check: Hit “Submit” to check the status of your allotment.

Steps for the BSE Website:

  1. Access the BSE India Website: Visit bseindia.com.
  2. Go to the IPO Section: Click on “Equity” and then select “Status of Issue Applications.”
  3. Fill in Your Information: Enter your PAN, Application Number, and Select the Issue Name.
  4. View Your Allotment: Press “Search” to view the allotment results.

Broker Platforms

If you applied for the IPO through brokers like Zerodha, Upstox, or Groww, they often provide an integrated feature to check your IPO allotment status. Simply log in to their app or website, head to the IPO section, and follow the prompts to view your allotment details.

Information Needed to Check IPO Allotment Status

When checking your IPO allotment status online, make sure you have these details on hand:

  • PAN Number: Your ten-digit Permanent Account Number used during the IPO application process.
  • DP ID and Client ID: Provided by your depository participant (e.g., CDSL or NSDL) for Demat accounts.
  • Application Number: The unique number generated when you applied for the IPO.

With these ready, completing the process will be quick and easy (make sure you enter all the details correctly).

Step-by-Step Guide for Online Check

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To make things easier, here’s a simple step-by-step roadmap you can follow for both registrar and exchange websites:

  1. Identify the IPO’s registrar.
  2. Gather your PAN, DP ID, Client ID, or Application Number.
  3. Visit the correct website (either the registrar or NSE/BSE).
  4. Locate the IPO allotment check section.
  5. Fill in the required fields.
  6. Submit to view your application or allotment status.

Troubleshooting Common Issues

If you face any issues while checking your IPO allotment status, here are some solutions:

  • Incorrect Details: Recheck whether you have entered the correct PAN or application number. Typos are common and can cause errors.
  • Delay in Status Update: Allotment status updates may take a day or two after the closing of the IPO. Hold tight until the registrar uploads the details.
  • Registrar Website Isn’t Loading: Switch to the NSE or BSE website for an alternate way to check your allotment status.

Benefits of Tracking IPO Allotment Faster

  1. Timely Refunds

If you were not allotted shares, checking the status ensures you are aware when the amount is refunded, or, if the refund is not received, you can raise the concern with the concerned authorities.

  1. Market Preparation

Successful applicants can prepare their trading strategies in advance. Once allotment is received, it is crucial to understand whether to book profit to capture the listing gains or keep the stock for the long term. In some cases, listing may happen below the issue price; in such IPOs, investors should consult RAs/IAs or study the company’s workings to decide whether to keep the stock for the long term or to book a loss.

Recently, Borana Weaves‘ IPO was live, and we published a detailed report covering every aspect of the company. Similarly, many other IPOs are covered by us, so you should bookmark our IPO page to have a complete know-how of that IPO and act ahead of others.

  1. Convenience

Tracking allotments online saves time and provides instant updates.

Takeaways for Investors

Tracking your IPO allotment status has never been easier, thanks to online platforms like registrar websites, NSE, and BSE portals. By knowing your allotment status as soon as it’s available, you can confidently plan your next moves.

Pro Tip: while checking IPO allotment status online

Bookmark the registrar’s, NSE’s, and BSE’s IPO allotment pages for quick access during future IPO applications.

Did you find this guide helpful? Share it with your fellow investors and help them stay informed.

FAQs

How can I check IPO allotment status by PAN number for free?

You can check your allotment status for free on the websites of the IPO registrar, NSE, or BSE. Simply enter your PAN and the IPO details to get the status.

When is the IPO allotment status updated?

The status is usually updated two to three working days after the IPO subscription closes.

Can I check IPO allotment status without a PAN?

While most platforms require a PAN, you can also check using other identifiers like the application number or DP Client ID on certain registrar websites.

How will I know if I did not get an allotment?

Your status will explicitly say “No Allotment” or “Not Allotted.” You may also notice the refund credited back to your bank account.

Is there another way to check if I got the IPO allotment?

Yes, you can also confirm through your Demat account. If shares are credited, it means you were allotted, but checking through the registrar or exchange’s website is the fastest way to know about the allotment status.

IPO GMP: Borana Weaves set for a good listing. Apply or not?

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Borana-IPO-GMP

IPO GMP of INR 60 suggests Borana Weaves is up for a decent listing on D-street with a close to 25% listing gain over the issue price. At a time when companies are avoiding doing IPO due to market volatility, Borana Weaves’ primary issue is attracting a good response.

At the time of writing, the issue has been oversubscribed more than 29 times, with the retail quota being oversubscribed by 76x, followed by the NII quota of 51x. Borana Weaves IPO is a public issue of 0.37 Cr equity shares. The company offers 0.07 Cr shares to retail investors, 0.20 Cr shares to qualified institutional buyers, and 0.10 Cr shares to non-institutional investors.

About Borana Weaves

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The company is a textile manufacturer based in Surat, specializing in the production of unbleached synthetic grey fabric. This fabric serves as a fundamental material for further processing, such as dyeing and printing, in various industries, including fashion, traditional textiles, technical textiles, home décor, and interior design. The versatility of grey fabric allows it to complement a wide range of unbleached fabrics across different styles, making it a valuable resource in the textile supply chain.

The company commenced its operations in 2020, and the production from our first unit, Unit 1, located at Plot No. AA/93/P, Hojiwala Industrial Estate, SUSML, Surat, Gujarat, was subsequently started in 2021. As of this date, the company operates three manufacturing units in Surat, Gujarat, equipped with textile manufacturing technologies for, inter alia, texturizing, warping, water jet looms, and textile folding.

Most of the manufacturing and processing in their units are carried out using textile manufacturing technologies, pollution-light machinery and tools which are supplied by domestic and global players in the synthetic fiber industry. As of December 31, 2024, the Company had a total of 15 texturizing machines, 6 warping machines, 700 water jet looms, and 10 folding machines active at its three units.

Borana-weaves-business

Borana Weaves: Business updates and Financials

The Indian market is experiencing a notable shift towards synthetic textiles, driven by their affordability, durability, and ease of maintenance. Current demand for polyester in India stands at approximately 4 million tonnes and is projected to rise to 6.7 million tonnes by 2025, indicating a growing consumer preference for synthetic materials.

Further, evolving fashion trends, particularly the rise in brand consciousness and rapidly changing styles, are increasing the appeal of synthetic textiles. With the global end-use market for man-made fibers expected to expand by 3.7% by 2025, the Indian synthetic textile industry is well-positioned to benefit, with growth opportunities in both domestic consumption and Exports (Source: D&B Report).

Borana Weaves’ majority customer base (comprising wholesalers) in Gujarat has contributed to the company’s growth. With its office, manufacturing units, and operational activities also based in this state, it endeavors to foster strong connections with customers.

During the Fiscal Years 2024, 2023, 2022, and the nine-months ending December 31, 2024, the company catered to 170, 177, 65, and 204 customers, respectively, and our revenue from sales stood at ₹19,9.05 crore, ₹ 13,5.39cr, ₹ 4,2.40 cr, and ₹ 21,1.61 crore, respectively, translating to average compounded annual growth rate of 116.84% for the last three Financial Years.

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Borana-weaves-business-financials

Though still small in size, Borana is growing very rapidly with good improvement in EBITDA and PAT margin.

Borana Weaves RHP

Borana Weaves: what we like in the company

  • Location advantage: Situated in Surat, a major textile and apparel manufacturing hub in South Gujarat, Borana Weaves benefits from its strategic location, which provides easy access to raw materials, particularly POY Yarn. The concentration of the company’s registered office, corporate offices, manufacturing units, and suppliers within the region enables effective responses to regional market dynamics and challenges.
  • Technological Advancements: Borana Weaves has invested significantly in state-of-the-art textile manufacturing technologies, including 700 high-tech water jet looms. This enables high production efficiency and superior quality, positioning the company as a technological leader in the industry.
  • The adoption of water jet looms presents significant benefits in the production of synthetic grey fabric. These machines offer greater precision in the weaving process, resulting in fabric that exhibits uniform texture and consistent quality.
  • Unlike traditional power looms, which may require more mechanical components and labor-intensive setups, water jet looms can operate at higher speeds with reduced downtime. This efficiency enhances the ability to meet larger production demands without compromising on quality.
  • Additionally, the water jet technology places less tension on the polyester textured yarn, decreasing the likelihood of breakage during weaving. This results in fewer interruptions in the production cycle, lower waste generation, and a more streamlined manufacturing process compared to traditional methods.
  • Furthermore, the reliance on water as a propulsion method lessens energy consumption, and the absence of harmful chemicals associated with conventional fabric treatments promotes a more sustainable approach to textile manufacturing.
  • Vertical Integration: Borana Weaves has integrated key operations, such as spinning and texturizing, within its manufacturing process. This vertical integration improves control over the supply chain and enhances production efficiencies.
  • Niche Product Portfolio: The company primarily focuses on a single product line, offering grey fabric exclusively. This specialization enables the company to concentrate its efforts within a specific market segment, catering to niche customer needs with a focused approach.
  • Growing Demand for Sustainable Textiles: With increasing awareness of environmental concerns, there is a growing demand for sustainable and eco-friendly textiles. Borana Weaves’ commitment to high-quality, grey fabric positions it well to capitalize on this trend.
  • Opportunity in the International market: Exploring export opportunities and expanding its presence in international markets could provide Borana Weaves with access to larger consumer bases and new revenue streams, particularly in regions where Indian textiles are in high demand.

Negatives in the company

  • Intense Competition and operational challenges: The Indian textile industry is highly competitive, with both established players and new entrants vying for market share. The competition from both domestic and international textile manufacturers could exert pressure on pricing and market positioning. Also, fluctuations in the prices of raw materials, such as cotton and synthetic fibres, could impact production costs and margins, especially in times of economic uncertainty.
  • Higher Operating Costs: While the investment in advanced machinery increases production efficiency, it also adds to the company’s operational costs, which could impact profitability, especially during periods of fluctuating demand.
  • Limited domestic presence and no global presence: Borana Weaves operates exclusively in the domestic market, but as the company was founded just a few years back, it has limited working experience. Borana has no presence internationally. Expanding into global markets could open up significant growth opportunities.
  • Dependence on Technological Upgrades: The company’s heavy reliance on machinery means it must continuously invest in the latest technology to stay competitive. This can strain financial resources, especially in the face of rapid technological changes.

Valuation and peer comparison, Is IPO GMP justified?

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The industry trend highlights varying levels of operational efficiency, as seen in the EBITDA margins. Companies like KPR Mill Ltd. (20%) and Borana Weaves (21%) demonstrate strong operational efficiency, significantly outperforming peers in EBITDA margin, reflecting their ability to manage costs effectively while driving profitability. In comparison, larger firms like Jindal Worldwide Limited (8%) and Arvind Ltd. (11%) operate on thinner margins, possibly due to higher costs associated with their extensive operations.

Evidently, Borana Weaves is able to fetch better margins (both EBITDA and PAT) compared to its peers due to its niche market focus and focused cost structure. However, to scale the topline, Borana may have to diversify and aggressively spend, and to gain market share in the future, it may have to compromise on margins.

At the upper end of the price band of INR 216, the stock is valued at a P/E and a P/B ratio of nearly 24.5 and 2.6 times, respectively. Whereas other comparable peers are trading at a higher P/E, e.g., KPR mill at a P/E and P/B of 50 and 8.18, Gokaldas exports at a P/E and P/B of 49.6 and 3.81, and Arvind Ltd at a P/E and P/B of 28.1 and 2.62.

So, there is a good possibility that Borana Weaves may witness a 20-25% listing gains. Interesting? read our research report on Protean EGOV to find out if further falls are possible in this stock.

Conclusion

Borana Weaves is a cash-generating company (net cash positive since FY23). Post IPO, the promoter’s stake will be 65%, and it has no promoter pledge. Demand for synthetic textiles is booming in India, led by rising apparel consumption, urbanization, and export-driven garment production. Borana is well placed to benefit from the booming synthetic fabric market. Its B2B nature of business makes its cost structure light, giving it an advantage over peers in maintaining margins.

But IPO applicants should keep in mind that Borana Weaves is a recently formed company (though the promoters are experienced), it has no brand value as it is not a direct seller of products in the market, and its revenue comes from a highly commoditized product with no long-term contracts in place with clients. It has no business moat as its largest selling product, grey fabric, is crowded, as many reputed products make it in huge quantities.

Borana Weaves IPO is a completely fresh issue IPO, so 50% of the money raised will be used in capex. As the trend suggests, the company can remain net cash positive since FY23, it will have an upper hand in business, as it will not rely on external funds, thus better managing its debts. Investors should keep these facts in mind before betting on this IPO.

Protean EGOV share price fell 8% today. Will it fall more?

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protean-egov-technologies-shares-price

The Protean EGOV share price was locked in a 20% lower circuit yesterday and fell another 8% today. The company, in a recent exchange filing, informed that the Income Tax Department (ITD) has issued a Notice for Request for Proposals (RFP) inviting bids for the selection of a Managed Service Provider (MSP) for the Design, Development, Implementation, Operations, and Maintenance of its PAN 2.0 Project.

The Company had participated in the RFP bid proposal for the aforesaid project, but the Income Tax Department (ITD) informed the company that their proposal had not been considered favorably for the next round of the RFP selection process. But, the question is why a single RFP rejection is causing a significant damage to the company’s operations, and the stock is on a lower circuit?

A look at Protean EGOV’s operations

Protean EGov is involved in the business of developing citizen-centric and population-scale e-governance solutions. Services include e-governance solutions, system integration, business process re-engineering, data center co-location, and IT consulting services for citizens, corporates, and the Government.

The company is modernizing the direct tax infrastructure, providing a tax identity to citizens and corporates (issuance of PAN card), strengthening the old-age social security infrastructure (National Pension System, NPS & Atal Pension Yojna – APY), promoting financial inclusion by contributing to the India Stack by enrolling citizens for National Identity and enabling the BFSI sector by providing Aadhaar-based identity authentication and eSign services.

protean-egov-technologies-shares

The company commands a strong market presence across various sectors, particularly in tax infrastructure, where it holds over 65% market share in TIN/PAN issuance. In the retirement segment, as a Central Recordkeeping Agency (CRA), it captures 92% of the market for the National Pension Scheme (NPS) and holds a full 100% share in the Atal Pension Yojana (APY).
Protean plays a pivotal role in modernizing India’s digital infrastructure by:

  • Overhauling the direct tax system with projects like PAN issuance and the Tax Information Network (TIN).
  • Strengthening old-age security by building core IT infrastructure for the National Pension System (NPS).
  • Enabling universal social security, especially for unorganized workers, through Atal Pension Yojana (APY) technology.
  • Supporting India Stack, offering API-based, presence-less, paperless, and cashless solutions, including Aadhaar-based services and e-Sign capabilities.
  • Enhancing access to education financing via platforms like Vidya Lakshmi and Vidyasaarathi.
  • Driving open digital ecosystems (ODE) such as ONDC across multiple sectors, including e-commerce, healthcare, and agriculture.
  • Developed cloud-managed services (IaaS, DaaS, PaaS, and SaaS) for businesses.

In Q2 FY25, the company’s platform Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC) entered the financial services sector with the launch of a new vertical enabling Open Finance, it also unveiled a new product called Protean LIFE under the ODE platform. In July 2024, it launched a new digital signature and stamping product, eSignPro.

Protean EGOV share price outlook

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The Protean EGOV share price was locked in the lower circuit yesterday after the company disclosed that it was getting out of the race to participate in the Pan 2.0 operations. Pan 2.0 is a project, part of the PAN 2.0 initiative, that includes the design, development, operations, and maintenance of the PAN system—a business segment where Protean has long been a major player.

The Pan 2.0 project’s budget is roughly Rs 1,440 crore; getting this deal would have cemented Protean’s place at the centre of India’s tax‑tech landscape for years. Though Protean tried to reassure investors that this would have minimal impact on its operations, as the current Pan issuance and other related services will go on as usual but market thinks otherwise.

Protean Egov in a statement said, “In our understanding, this is a project for technology revamp which includes design, development and other aspects of PAN systems at the income tax department and at present, it appears to have limited or minimal impact on our ongoing PAN processing issuance services under the existing mandate with the Income Tax Department”. The management also emphasized that PAN 2.0 mainly targets the online segment and will take at least two years to come online.

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This is why the market is worried about this recent development, close to half of Protean Egov’s revenue is from tax services (Pan and related services), and the rest from pension and identity services. The market is always forward-looking, and it was almost certain that the Pan 2.0 deal would come to the company, given its dominant position (close to 65% market share) in current pan-related services, and it was reflected in its share price.

This deal win would have cemented the company’s footing in citizens’ digital services and would have provided clear revenue visibility for the coming years. But now that it is clear that the company is out of the Pan 2.0 deal race, the market is reassessing its value. Here is what we can predict-

  • As the management pointed out, there will be no immediate effect of this as the current Pan operations will go on as it is, so there might be no effect on revenue in FY26.
  • From FY27, the company may start losing revenue as the current Pan operations will move towards conclusion, and Pan 2.0 kicks in. From FY28, it may lose 100% of the revenue from tax services.
  • Protean is already missing its projected growth in revenue, compared to FY24, where it did a revenue of 882cr, it will do a revenue of 850cr in FY25 (despite considering 20% QoQ growth in revenue)
  • Given that its revenue grows by 15-17% in FY26, it may do a revenue of 977- 1,000cr in FY26. Going by the average margin that the company is achieving, it will do an EPS of 22.5-23. In FY26, an EPS of 26-26.5.
  • In FY27, it may lose 50% of the revenue coming from tax services, but we assume it will be able to achieve 15% growth in pension and identity services. So, an estimated 215 cr revenue will be foregone from FY27, the rest, estimated 575 cr revenue, will come from pension and identity services, 790 cr revenue in total, and an estimated EPS of 20. So a P/E of 52-53 (very expensive given the growth estimates, P/E based on above calculations)
  • So, a target based on these estimates, we suggest a price of 660-700 (given a P/E of 33-35).

Protean Egov share price performance

Currently trading at 1,048, the Protean EGOV share price is down more than 45% YTD. In its limited trading history, the chart of the stock is weak, and investors should stay cautious. Weakness will increase once the stock breaches 950 and closes below it, and then it may test the listing price levels of 760-780. On the upside, 1,200-1220 will be a strong resistance, and further upside will only come above that level.

PROTEAN_EGOV_SHARE_PRICE_2025

The stock that is making investors rich and the country proud, read.

Conclusion

Investors should watch the company and how it tackles the current situation. Protean has a great team, expertise, and execution capabilities. They may win a further project, either domestic or export, and completely offset the effect of the Pan 2.0 deal loss. Investors should keep the stock on the watchlist to track further development, but for now, getting out of the stock is a wise choice. Reason, if Protean does not secure further big orders, from FY28, 100% revenue from tax services may be extinguished.

14x in 5 years, this defense stock makes investors rich and the country proud

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Solar-Industries-defense-portfolio

An act of bravery that made defense stocks fly high, India’s precision strike on Pakistan’s terrorist camps, launchpads, and hideouts to avenge the Pahalgam terror attack brought Pakistan’s unwarranted aggression into the picture.

India again replied with the utmost precision, targeting multiple Pakistani airbases and defense infrastructures. This decisive victory of India resulted from the domestic defense industry backing the Indian armed forces’ valor.

This, in return, brought global attention to Indian defense players and made defense stocks rally. Since the mutual understanding of the ceasefire between both countries after the Pakistani side requested India to do so, the Indian defense stocks have rallied up to 25%. Now, everyone in the country and outside wants a piece of them. My Focus on defense stocks is old, and today, I am discussing one such stock that has made investors rich and the country proud.

The name is Solar Industries. Solar Industries India Ltd stock is up 14x in less than 5 years, turning 1 lakh to 14 lakhs. The company has gained recognition in niche areas of defense and industrial explosives.

About Solar Industries India Ltd

Solar Industries is one of the largest domestic manufacturers of bulk and cartridge explosives, detonators, detonating cords, and components that find applications in the mining, infrastructure, and construction industries. The company manufactures high-energy explosives, delivery systems, ammunition filling, and pyros fuses for the defence sector. SIIL is rapidly growing its footprint in the defense market with niche products like drones, UAVs, ammunitions, bombs & warheads, and rockets and missiles.

✓ One of the World’s leading manufacturers of Explosives & Initiating Systems
✓ One of the most valued Explosives companies in the world
✓ Worldwide presence with 40 manufacturing facilities
✓ Global footprint in 82+ countries with manufacturing facilities in 9 countries

✓ First private sector company in India to set up an integrated facility for Defence products
like High Energy Material, Propellants for rockets, Warheads, and Rockets
✓ First private sector company to set up a complete integrated facility for Pinaka rockets
✓ First private sector company to receive a ready-to-use ammunition order from the Defence sector
✓ First private sector company to receive Defence export orders for ready-to-use
Ammunitions
✓ First private sector company to indigenously develop, receive & supply an order for a Drone
Based Loitering munitions.
✓ First private sector company to indigenously develop three new explosives, SEBEX-2,
SITBEX-1 and SIMEX-4

Solar Industries Portfolio

Industrial explosives

The company is a leading manufacturer of industrial explosives, e.g., non-permitted, permitted, and seismic explosives. Non-permitted explosives contain product lines like the Superpower series, the Solargel series, the Solar Prime series, and the Ecopower series. They are high-strength booster-sensitive packaged emulsion explosives suitable for use in most types of blasting applications using small, medium, and large diameter holes, and they represent the latest development in slurry explosives technology.

Solar-Industries-explosive-portfolio

Permitted explosives contain the Supercoal series of products. The Company also has a vast variety of other explosives primarily used in defense and other similar industries. They are electronic detonators, non-electronic detonators, plain detonators, cord relay, cast booster, detonating cords, aluminium elemented detonators, etc. For example, electronic detonators are highly accurate, programmable at the site.

Solar-Industries-explosive-portfolio

Defense product portfolio of Solar Industries

This is where Solar Industries stands out. Its progress in the defense sector is a story in itself, from a humble beginning to a preferred partner of our armed forces for sophisticated weapons like Pinaka rockets, loitering munitions, and other UAVs, bombs, warheads, and anti-drone systems.

In its drones and UAs portfolio, the company has loitering munitions like Nagastra 1, its advanced version Nagastra 2, Rudrastra (hexacopter), and recently introduced anti-drone system Bhargavastra. Also, the company possesses an array of weapons to weaponize drones.

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The company recently demonstrated the capabilities of Bhargavastra, a hard-kill, low-cost anti-swarm drone system that is designed to counter growing drone threats in modern warfare. The micro rockets used in this counter-drone system underwent rigorous testing at the Seaward Firing Range, Gopalpur, achieving all designated objectives.

A Unified Solution for Countering Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Threats: ‘Bhargavastra’ boasts of advanced capabilities for detecting and eliminating small, incoming drones at distances of upto 2.5 km. It employs unguided micro rockets as the first layer of defence capable of neutralising swarm of drones with lethal radius of 20 meters and guided micro-missile (already tested earlier) as the second layer for pin point accuracy, ensuring precise and impactful neutralisation.

SDAL also informed the media that the system is modular and can have an additional soft-kill layer, including jamming and spoofing, to provide an integrated and comprehensive shield for all branches of the armed forces.

Apart from drones and UAs, the company also manufactures different categories of ammunition, e.g., multi-mode hand grenades, medium caliber, 81mm AT/AM smoke grenades, and a bund blasting device. Apart from that, SDAL also manufactures HMX, RDX, and TNT. It also makes different weight air bombs, torpedoes, and warheads for rockets and missiles.

Solar-Industries-explosive-portfolio

Solar defense’s another major revenue source is its rockets and missiles portfolio. Under a different category of Pinaka rockets, it manufactures Pinaka MK1, Pinaka enhanced, and Pinaka guided. The Ministry of Defense in February placed orders worth 6,084 crore for Pinaka rockets, which include the supply of Area Denial Munition (ADM), Type-1 (DPICM), and High Explosive Pre-Fragmented (HEPF) Mk-1 (Enhanced) rockets respectively for PINAKA Multiple Launcher Rocket System (MLRS). SDAM informed that 86% of this contract is to be executed within 10 years.

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Pinaka-Multi-Barrel-Rocket-Launcher

Later, at the end of February, the company received another order worth 2,150 crore. It was an export order for different defense products and will be executed in another 6 years. Solar Defense has more than 13,000 cr worth of defense orders in hand, which will be executed in the next 10 years. The company has witnessed a staggering 1,300% rise in its order book in just one year, and the future growth (may not be of the same magnitude due to high base) is expected to be phenomenal.

Competitive Edge

Solar Industries is the only private Indian company licensed to manufacture warheads, giving it a clear competitive advantage. The company recently signed an MOU with the Government of Maharashtra to invest ₹12,700 crores over the next 10 years for a mega project focused on defense manufacturing.

The company’s leadership in UAs and loitering munitions (Nagashtra 1 and 2) gives it a clear edge over others. In the recent India-Pak conflict, Indian loitering munitions dominated the skies and destroyed the targets at will. Reports suggest that after this, the government is planning to fast-track the procurement of more loitering munitions, and a major chunk of orders may come to Solar Industries.

The company’s recent successful test of ‘Bhargavashtra’, the anti-drone system, presents a good revenue opportunity for it, as after the recent conflict, and with growing use of drones in modern warfare, a robust anti-drone system is a need of the hour, apart from domestic orders, these milestones will attract export customers for the company.

Valuation of the defense stock and Stock price outlook

Valuation is one of the concerns that may stop investors from entering the stock at current levels. At FY25 full year estimated EPS of 136-140, the company is trading at a P/E of 100-102, which is expensive. Even in terms of sales to market cap (FY25 full year sales E*), it is trading at a 16x, which is an outrageous valuation.

Though the valuation is expensive, the market is valuing the company as such, as there is no other private player with similar capabilities. With India aiming to become self-reliant in defense manufacturing, Solar Industries is a central player in the country’s defense ambitions. This transformation is backed by both domestic and international tailwinds.

The growing need for ammunition and weapon systems amidst global geopolitical tensions offers a long-term growth opportunity. Solar Industries’ orderbook will keep growing, as a result, the company will see a 25-30% topline growth in the coming years, and it will maintain the OPM of 25+%.

defense-stock-SOLARINDS_2025

Instead of buying at current levels, investors should look for an entry opportunity in the 11500-12500 range (a strong support range for the stock if it cools off after the recent rally), which will also coincide with the 50% Fib retracement (if the stock falls from current levels, exhaustion at current levels is visible due to formation of shooting star candlestick pattern but confirmation is required ). Please note, levels are based on the chart and not a trading or buy/sell advice.

SOLARINDS_2025

On more of our stock research, we have recently done a detailed analysis of Eternal (parent company of Zomato), do read.

Conclusion

While valuation may be stretched at current levels, Solar Industries is a company worth watching. A glowing example of private sector participation in India’s defense industry, Solar Industries is positioning itself as a crucial player in the future of India’s military-industrial complex and the global defense ecosystem.

The company’s proven track record, combined with its ambitious product pipeline and favorable macro trends, paints a compelling growth story. For investors seeking exposure to a high-potential defense stock, Solar Industries presents a unique opportunity. Apart from making the country proud, the company has made investors rich in the past, and it will keep doing so in the future.

UnitedHealth (UNH Stock): You should stay away from it

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UNH stock is down more than 55% in one month, and Wall Street investors are wondering whether it is the right time to add the stock to the portfolio. UnitedHealth is a healthcare giant that provides healthcare and well-being services.

Established in 1977, the company has grown into a diversified health care powerhouse, leveraging its twin engines—UnitedHealthcare, which is its insurance arm, and Optum, which provides health services. Through UnitedHealthcare, the company offers a different set of insurance plans that cater to individuals, employers, and government entities. This enables it to generate substantial revenue by collecting premiums from policyholders, a model that hinges on striking a fine balance between risk management and cost-effective healthcare delivery.

The company is going through a rough phase, and UNH’s investors are losing money. Recently company’s CEO resigned citing personal reasons, but now investors are speculating whether the resignation was due to ongoing developments.

The Wall Street Journal recently reported that UNH is facing a criminal investigation for possible Medicare fraud. Reports suggest that the DOJ’s healthcare fraud unit is overseeing the investigation, which is focused on UnitedHealth Group’s Medicare Advantage business practices. While the exact nature of the probe is unclear, but it may be related to the company’s Medicare billing practices.

UNH_stock-UnitedHealthcare

While the company in its recent response said that, “We have not been notified by the Department of Justice of the supposed criminal investigation reported, without official attribution, in the Wall Street Journal today. The WSJ’s reporting is deeply irresponsible, as even it admits that the ‘exact nature of the potential criminal allegations is unclear.’ We stand by the integrity of our Medicare Advantage program.”

UNH stock: Is the investigation the only worry?

For UnitedHealthcare, reports of ongoing investigations are not the only worry. Recently, the company’s CEO resigned citing personal reasons. UNH’s revenue and net income are slowing down, its margin is contracting, reason is that higher medical costs are squeezing UnitedHealth Group’s profits and are a key reason for its recent downturn.

Since the pandemic, more people are using healthcare benefits, leading to bigger medical bills for the company. As a result, UNH is finding it tough to keep these costs down. Its Medical Benefits Ratio, which shows how much of its premium money goes to customers’ medical costs, jumped from 82% in 2022 to 85.5% in 2024. The company’s reported net margins contracted from 6.2% to 3.6% over this period.

In another major blow to investors’ confidence, UNH surprisingly withdrew its full-year financial outlook. This uncommon action from a group typically recognized for its cautious yet dependable guidance has deeply rattled investors. Last month, UnitedHealth lowered its full-year 2025 earnings outlook to $24.65-25.15 per share, down from the previous range of $26.00-26.50 per share.

UNH_stock-UnitedHealthcare

UNH’s stock fall is a big blow for ETFs, reports suggest. Currently, UnitedHealth is held by 391 ETFs, with more than 142 million shares owned across these Exchange Traded Funds. This extensive exposure is making the stock’s steep decline a significant drag on a wide swath of funds, affecting a range of institutional and retail investors alike.

What does the UNH’s Chart say?

The chart of UNH is messed up due to this extreme fall. Within a month, the stock is down more than 50%, it is below all moving averages, the stock did not respect any support points, and the chances of it doing so are not much going ahead. With the big red solid pipes indicating a doomsday pattern in stock, chances of its falling knife show continuing are higher.

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UNH_2025

For the stock to stop falling, it should close above $290-300 this week (a weekly close above the given price range, as we are considering the weekly chart of the UNH). If it closes below $250 (today’s low), chances are high that it will fall further to the $200-210 zone. On the upside, $300 is an immediate resistance; if taken out, the stock could rally to $370-380.

Should you catch the falling knife here?

It is not advised for the investors to catch the falling knife here (A popular term for buying swiftly sinking stock). Though in terms of value, UNH stock may feel like a decent buy, but given the ongoing investigations and its deteriorating financials, it could fall another 40-50% in no time. A DCF method valuation suggests the value of UNH stock to be $700+ (more than 60% from here), but it is still too risky to add UNH at this point.

Risk-taking investors should keep an eye on UNH’s price movement and the levels mentioned in the chart. Once the stock is near support, they can consider adding to it. UNH, with its 3+% dividend yield, strong cash position, if down another 20+% from here, will present a decent value, but investors should be keenly watching the ongoing investigations as any unfavorable findings could dampen the stock beyond repair.

Eternal Share Price: Will topline growth be enough to keep investors glued

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The Eternal share price started the day with losses after the company reported a significant dip in its bottom line in Q4 FY2025. But, after Q4 numbers, Zomato’s (now Eternal) stock price soon reversed course and closed near day high, up 0.76%. Today, the Eternal share price is up 3.08%, trading at 234.

While the company’s topline growth remains impressive, a significant dip in the bottom line and end profit is concerning. Should a falling EBITDA be a red line for investors? Or, an impressive topline growth and being the only company in the segment that is profitable will glue investors, let’s find out.

A look at Eternal’s Q4 FY25

  • The company’s adjusted revenue was at 6,188 crore, a growth of 60% YoY.
  • Eternal reported a significant decline in adjusted EBITDA at 165 crore, down 29% YoY and 120% QoQ.
  • The company’s reported PAT was at 39 crore, down more than 70% YoY.
  • Segment-wise, Eternal reported the revenue of INR 1,840 crore, up 93% YoY in B2B supplies (Hyperpure)
  • The food delivery segment of the business reported 2409 crore of revenue, up 17% YoY.
  • The Quick Commerce segment saw the fastest jump of 122% in revenue to INR 1,709 crore.
  • The going-out segment reported revenue of INR 229 crore, up 146% (also includes the revenue from the recently acquired ticketing business from Paytm)
  • NOV (net order value, which is equal to gross order value – discounts) of our B2C businesses (business to consumer) grew 53% YoY (5% QoQ) to INR 17,440 crore in Q4FY25. On a like-for-like basis (excluding the impact of the acquisition of Paytm’s entertainment ticketing business), NOV growth was 48% YoY (5% QoQ). Our B2B business, Hyperpure’s revenue grew 93% YoY (10% QoQ).

Key Takeaways from Q4

zomato-eternal-q4fy25

While the company has delivered 60 %+ topline growth, the adjusted EBITDA saw a significant dip. Management cited the accelerated investments in expanding the quick commerce store network as the reason behind this dip.

Eternal added 294 net new stores in Q4FY25, the company’s highest-ever net store addition in a single quarter. As a result, ~40% of the overall network of 1,301 stores is underutilized, having opened in the last two quarters alone (216 in Q3FY25 and 294 in Q4FY25). It also added 1 million sq ft of new warehousing space to support the store expansion.

Also, the company increased investment in marketing to accelerate the pace of new customer acquisition. As an outcome, average monthly transacting customers increased to 13.7 million in Q4FY25 (up from 10.6 million in Q3FY25).

Due to these ongoing efforts, the management expects losses to go up in the upcoming quarters, especially in the B2C quick commerce (Blinkit) segment. Due to rising competition in food delivery and quick commerce from already existing and new entrant players, the management does not want to take chances on market share, so the near-term focus will be on gaining market share instead of profitability.

For Eternal, the food delivery business is facing a significant slowdown. The management pointed out few reason for the same-

  1. The sluggish demand environment (especially on discretionary spends)
  2. Shortage (temporary) of delivery partners due to high demand of delivery partners in quick
    commerce given the rapid expansion of the industry in the last few months
  3. Competition from quick delivery of packaged food from quick commerce leading to drop in demand
    for food delivery from restaurants

Also, the company delisted as many as 19,000 restaurants for violating policy or quality measurements. It is clear that competition in the food delivery business has always been high, and the intensity of it has not changed in the last quarter. The company’s market share has been stable for the last few months, and it is aggressively taking measures to gain market share in upcoming quarters.

What to make out of it

Eternal is operating in many avenues, e.g., food delivery (Zomato), quick commerce (Blinkit), B2B supplies (Hyperpure), and going out (including ticketing and entertainment business acquired by Paytm). The company was already running programs like 10-minute food delivery services like Zomato Quick and Everyday, but they have failed to provide the desired results, so, company decided to discontinue them.

The primary challenge for the company is to maintain growth without compromising profitability. The company barely became profitable, but its primary business, e.g., food delivery and quick commerce, is struggling to maintain even a lower adjusted EBITDA margin due to very high competition, so, becomes a trade-off between margin and growth. There is not much brand loyalty in the picture, the brand that provides better service and discounts, consumer stick to that.

So, here, aggressive expansion, e.g., on delivery partners, restaurant partners, dark stores, and better inventory management, comes into the picture, and this can be better executed by being in a better cash position, which Eternal is. So, it is ahead of competitors, but here is the catch: how long can the company keep pushing on aggressive growth, compromising profits?

The company’s earlier plan of improving margins with advancing growth is not playing out, as margins in all of the segments except food delivery are falling, and in the food delivery segment, growth is slowing down. So, it should be a major worry for shareholders, and they should ask questions like, How long can the company keep going ahead with aggressive expansion?

Competitors will also keep pushing for aggressive expansion, and being a disruption-prone sector, for example, assume the company opens 3,000 dark stores, has excellent inventory management in place, delivers orders fastest to consumers, and gains maximum market share, and, based on that, it shifts focus to improving margins, to do so it raises platform, delivery fees etc, but will the consumer stick to the company and pay higher price or will the already desperate competitors will be able to lure them with aggressive offers?

So, that will be a rat race with no clear winners. One more possibility is that a new or existing player could further disrupt the industry by negating the relevance of dark stores to manage inventory. It will remain crucial for the company to find the X factor that is not visible till now. For the shareholders, the question should be how much further price appreciation they could expect if the stock price is already at a steep valuation of p/e 112x.

Even in terms of sales to market cap at 11x (FY25 sales figure), Eternal’s shares are trading at a steep valuation, which seems unsustainable given that the company’s profitability will take a hit due to aggressive expansion of dark stores to maintain the edge over competitors in the quick commerce space.

ETERNAL_share_price_2025

The company, in its recent conference call, informed investors that its top priorities in near term are-

  1. Improving customer experience with more consistent delivery and fulfilment experience
  2. Increase the breadth of product categories that customers can reliably buy from Blinkit
  3. Increase our footprint, both in terms of stores and our nationwide supply chain, to reach more customers efficiently

The management informed investors, “We will aggressively look to grow our market share, especially in the face of heightened competition, and will not let any short-term profitability goals come in the way of that.”

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Eternal share price: technical setup

The stock of Eternal is down more than 18% YTD, and is technically weak as it is trading below most of the important trading averages. Recently, the stock crossed above the 50 DMA, which is currently at 221.6, but the stock will only turn bullish once it crosses the 250 level, which is also the immediate resistance for the stock.

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If the stock fails to sustain above the 50 DMA, it can slide further to the 195-205 zone, below which 150-158 is a very significant support for the stock. On the upside, if the 250-255 level is taken out, it can easily reach the 300 mark. (Not a trading advice, analysis is backed by data, and investors should carry out research or take advice from registered advisors before taking any buy or sell call)

Conclusion

Investors should approach Eternal’s stock with caution, as the valuation is already steep, and in such a challenging time, where geopolitical risks and trade wars are looming, staying with an attractive valuation and low beta stock could be a better option. Even if investors are chasing high-growth stocks, it is advised to make sure that the growth is in both the top and bottom line.

Also, remaining vigilant of returns of various instruments like Gold, Nifty 50 can benefit investors.

Gold Return vs Nifty 50, which one would have made you richer

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Gold_vs-equity-2025

Gold return vs Nifty 50, though this year belongs to Gold, as the yellow metal has mostly outperformed every other asset class by a big margin, but is this the case for this year, or has it been the case for a long time? Was your grandmother’s simple, hassle-free gold investment better than your fancy equity investments? Let’s find out with data. We will use the Nifty 50’s return vs Gold in different time frames for the comparison.

Why Compare Gold and the Nifty 50?

When it comes to building wealth over the years, Indian investors typically lean towards two popular options:

  1. Gold – A traditional, tangible asset often considered safe and stable in value.
  2. The Nifty 50 – A benchmark equity index symbolizing the top-performing companies listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in India.

While gold relies on its historical, intrinsic value and global appeal, the Nifty 50 represents the evolving Indian economy and its dynamic business landscape. Comparing the two provides insights into which investment generates better returns and aligns with your financial goals.

Gold rally in 2025

Gold returned more than 25% in five months of 2025 alone, outperforming equities big time. At 1st January 2025, gold was at INR 76,500, and this month it made a high of 1,00,000 before retracing back to 94,500. But is this a one-off return or a case of gold outperforming other asset classes over the years? This year’s gold rally is primarily the result of central bank buying the yellow metal to hedge against the USD, and countries like China are buying it to shield themselves against volatile U.S. trade policies.

GOLD1-price-movement-since-Jan1-2025

Gold Return vs Nifty 50

Gold return vs Nifty 50 is not something that remained head to head for a long time, but the recent rally in gold forced investors to rethink their view on gold, Usually, gold has been considered a safe haven asset, a hedge in tough times, but in last 1 year, gold has already returned more than 35% catching attention of many investors. Though Gold’s return is different as physical, digital, ETF, and Sovereign Gold Bond (SGBs), so will consider them too when comparing.

Gold Return in last 75 years

To get started, this is how Gold fared in the last 100 years (as most of the other investment instruments e.g., digital gold, ETF, SGBs, became popular after 2009-2010 or later, so here we are talking about physical gold’s journey in the last 75 years.

Gold-price-chart-gold-return-vs-nifty-50

In 1950, the price of 10 gm of physical gold was at INR 100, and it touched INR 1,00,000 in April 2025, giving a 1000x return in 75 years. It means 10,000 (ten thousand) invested in gold 75 years ago would have grown to 1 crore of capital now (without tax adjustment).

Since the Nifty 50’s inception in 1995 at a base price of 1,000, the index is up more than 26x, whereas Gold was at INR 4,680 in 1995 and has given close to 21.4x in this period, so Nifty’s return in this period is more than that of gold’s (considering the recent all time highs of both instruments). In terms of CAGR, the Nifty 50 has given a return of 11.89% since inception, whereas gold has given a return of 11% in the same period.

Key Data Points from Research and Market Analysis

Time HorizonGold (CAGR)Nifty 50 (CAGR)Winner
6 Months of 2024-2520%0.13%Gold
1 Year (2023-24)31.6%21.3%Gold
3 Years10.2%14.4%Nifty 50
5 Years9.8%12.5%Nifty 50
10 Years11.1%13.7%Nifty 50
Since 200011.0%12.0%Nifty 50

Note: CAGR = Compounded Annual Growth Rate

gold-equity-price-comparison

So, here Nifty 50 is a clear winner in the longer timeframe, but Gold wins in short-term volatility or crisis periods (2008, COVID-2020, or recent geopolitical, trade war). Nifty 50 outpaces gold in wealth creation over 5+ years.

📊 Long-Term Performance Metrics (1996–2024, Since the inception of Nifty 50)

AssetStart Value (1996)Value in 2024CAGR (Annualized Return)₹1 Lakh Investment Grows To
Nifty 501,006~26,20012.4%₹19.7 Lakhs
Gold (INR/10g)₹5,160₹80,00010.2%₹12.4 Lakhs

🧮 Calculated using:
CAGR = (EndingValue/StartingValue)(1/Years)−1(Ending Value / Starting Value)^(1 / Years) – 1(EndingValue/StartingValue)(1/Years)−1 × 100

Comparing the results decade wise

Considering the results decade-wise provides a valuable insight, This helps us decode whether there is a pattern by which investors can benefit.

📈 1. Performance Snapshot: CAGR Returns (2000–2024)

PeriodGold CAGR (%)Nifty 50 CAGR (%)
2000–201015.2%13.45% (returns affected due to the global financial crisis)
2010–20208.4%9.82%
2020–2025 (till date)16.9%21.7%
Overall11.0%12.0%

Decade-Wise Insights

🔶 2000–2010: Gold Takes the Lead

  • The 2008 global financial crisis led to panic selling in equities. Investors fled to gold, pushing its price up significantly.
  • Gold CAGR: 15.2% vs Nifty’s 13.0%

🔷 2010–2020: Nifty 50 Rises from the Ashes

  • Despite multiple slowdowns, Indian equities stabilized and gained strength.
  • Nifty 50’s earnings recovery and new-age sector growth helped it outperform gold.

🔷 2020–2025 (till date): Equity Boom, Gold Safe Haven

  • First, COVID-19 pushed gold to ₹56,000 levels (Aug 2020) — a historic high at the time. Then, geopolitical tensions and trade wars pushed gold to 1,00,000, a new high.
  • But Nifty 50 surged in 2021–2023 due to tech, BFSI, and midcap booms (post-COVID earnings boom). New high of 26,000 in Sept 2024, powered by rate cuts and macro ease. But, the equity is struggling since then due to lackluster earnings, trade wars, FII exodus, and geopolitical troubles.

So, Gold is a Crisis Hedge

Gold shines when uncertainty looms. Here’s how it reacted to global shocks:

  • 2008 Crisis: Gold rose 28% while Nifty crashed 52%.
  • COVID-19 (2020): Gold rose 24% Y-o-Y; Nifty corrected sharply but rebounded fast.
  • Geopolitical conflicts (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East): Again, gold served as a volatility shield.
  • Trade wars: Gold’s new high vs Nifty 50’s new 52-week low.

🔁 Gold is not for wealth creation alone — it is wealth preservation.

Gold Investment options vs Nifty 50

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The return comparison of the Nifty 50, Gold as physical, digital, gold ETFs, and SGBs is presented above. Gold ETFs are becoming more and more popular in India, so should you consider that?

Q4 results live updates: Adani Group companies in focus

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Q4 results live updates: 3 of Adani Group companies, namely Adani Green Energy, Adani Total Gas, and Adani Wilmar (now AWL Agri Business), were to release their Q4 performance report. In other Q4 numbers, companies like Ultratech Cement, IRFC, TVS Motors, Oberoi Realty, Hexaware Tech, KPIT Tech, Firstsource Solutions, Hatsun Agri Products, etc, released their numbers. But here our focus will be on Adani group companies’ Q4 updates.

Q4 results live updates

Adani Green Energy

Adani Green Energy presented a strong set of Q4 numbers, with a 37% jump in revenue. The company’s revenue in Q5 was Rs. 2,666 crore, up from Rs. 1,941 crore in Q4 last year. The company’s sale of energy increased by 28% YoY to 27,969 million units in FY25. EBITDA for the Q4 was at 2,453 crore, up 35% from last year’s Q4; EBITDA margin was at 91.7%. PAT jumped 18% to 1,231 crore. Robust growth in revenue, EBITDA, and cash profit is primarily driven by the capacity addition of 3,309 MW over the last year.

Adani Green Energy Ltd is developing a massive 30 GW renewable energy plant at Khavda in Gujarat. This is spread over an area of 538 sq km, almost 5 times the city of Paris. This project will set a global benchmark for the development of ultra-large-scale renewable energy plants.

Q4-results-live-updates-AGEL

AGEL’s Operational capacity increased by 30% YoY to 14.2 GW and is expected to increase to 15.2 GW with the addition of 1 GW which is near completion.

Adani Total Gas

Adani Total Gas (ATGL), India’s leading energy transition company, continues its mission of transforming India’s energy landscape through extensive infrastructure development. The company presented a mixed set of Q4 numbers for FY25. Co’s revenue from operations rose by 15% on account of higher volume, primarily on the CNG segment. EBITDA fell by 10% to 274 crore primarily due to a 27% jump in natural gas cost. Co informed “with lower allocation of APM gas to CNG segment and replacement with higher price gas, the cost of Natural gas rose by 27%. Allocation to the DPNG segment continued at 105%.

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Infrastructure & Operations Commentary – Q4FY25
➢ The CNG stations network has reached 647 CNG stations across 34 GAs
➢ Over 9.6 lakh homes are now connected with Piped Natural Gas
➢ CNG Volume increased by 18% Y-o-Y on account of CNG network expansion across Multiple Geographical Areas (GAs)
➢ With the addition of new PNG connections, PNG Volume has increased by 5% Y-o-Y
➢ Overall volume has increased by 13% Y-o-Y

In another major update, ATGL informed that Phase-1 of the Barsana plant has achieved increased
production of biogas at 6.9 TPD and is expected to ramp up to 9-10 TPD in this financial year. Co also highlighted that it achieved the highest daily feeding of 219 TPD, comprising 153 tons of cow dung and 66 tons of Paddy straw, and over 730 tons of CBG dispatched to GAIL Gas Ltd.

ATGL informed that it dispatched the first batch of fermented organic manure (FOM) under the “Harit Amrit” brand. Initial off-take of 30+ tons completed, and 100+ tons of Fermented Organic Manure (FOM) have been successfully packaged. In Q4, 2000+ tons of total FOM were sold in the digested organic material (Loose form) & 40+ tons of FOM were sold in Packaging form.

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Adani Wilmar ltd (AWL Agri Business)

AWL Agri Business Ltd. (formerly Adani Wilmar Limited) is one of India’s largest Food & FMCG companies,
offering a diverse portfolio of essential kitchen staples, including edible oils, wheat flour, rice, pulses, and
sugar. Its flagship brand, Fortune, commands the trust of more than 123 million households, reaching every 1 in 3 Indian families.

With 24 manufacturing facilities across 11 states, including India’s largest single-location refinery in Mundra (5,000 tons per day capacity), AWL ensures seamless production and distribution. Its extensive supply chain, supported by 97 stock points, over 10,000 distributors and sub-distributors, along with a retail network of 2.1 million outlets, guarantees widespread accessibility across urban and rural India.

AWL Agri Business presented a strong set of Q4 numbers despite the sudden jump in palm oil prices. AWL’s Q4 FY25 revenue was at INR 18,230 crores, up 38% YoY, with 8% underlying volume growth. Also, AWL recorded the highest-ever revenue for the quarter as well as for the full year FY25, revenue of INR 63,672 crores for full year FY25, up 24% YoY, with 9% underlying volume growth. Co’s Food & FMCG revenue saw robust growth and reached INR 6,273 crores in FY25, up 26% YoY, driven by 26% underlying volume growth.

In Q4 of FY25, AWL’s segment-wise revenue saw bumper growth. From Edible oils it rose 45% YoY, Food & FMCG grew it 9%, and Industry Essentials, it posted a 17% increase. The Company delivered its highest-ever annual operating EBITDA of INR 2,482 crores in FY25. In Q4 FY25, Operating EBITDA stood at INR 448 crores, with Profit After Tax (PAT) at INR 191 crores (up 22% YoY).

Q4-results-live-updates-AWL

While Adani Green Energy and AWL Agri Business’s stock should react positively in tomorrow’s trading session due to strong Q4 and robust future updates, the stock of Adani Total Gas may remain subdued due to its mixed performance.

Still investing in gold ETFs? Time to book profit?

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gold-etf-investing

Still investing in gold ETFs or planning to buy fresh, you may have questions like, Has gold’s rally run its course, or is it the start of a fresh breakout for gold? You may also want to know if it’s time to book a profit from your gold ETF or time to top up. Here, we will consider every point that can influence gold price movement and decide how the gold price could move going forward, and what’s in it for investors.

We will explore whether holding onto your gold ETFs still makes sense. We’ll evaluate global factors like supply and demand, central bank activity (especially China’s gold purchasing), tariffs, trade wars, and institutional positioning.

Gold has long been considered a “safe haven” investment for investors, offering stability during economic uncertainty. Among the many ways to invest in gold, gold ETFs (exchange-traded funds) have gained immense popularity for their liquidity, ease of trading, and cost-effectiveness. However, with gold prices having rallied significantly in recent times, investors are now facing a crucial question: is it time to book profits and explore alternative opportunities?

What Are Gold ETFs, and Why Are They Popular?

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Gold ETFs are investment funds that trade on stock exchanges just like individual stocks. They track the price of gold and allow investors to gain exposure to the commodity without owning physical gold. Here’s why gold ETFs have emerged as a go-to option for conservative investors and gold enthusiasts:

Benefits of Investing in Gold ETFs

  1. Liquidity

Unlike physical gold, you can buy or sell ETFs instantly during market hours. This makes them extremely accessible for investors who require flexibility.

  1. Cost-Effective

With gold ETFs, you don’t have to worry about expenses like storage, security, or making charges (which often accompany physical gold purchases).

  1. Diversification

They act as an excellent diversification tool. Adding gold ETFs to your portfolio can help hedge against inflation and economic downturns.

  1. Transparency

Gold ETFs are regulated financial instruments, ensuring transparency in pricing and holdings.

  1. Accessibility for Small Investors

You don’t need to have a fortune to start investing in gold ETFs. They allow you to own gold indirectly in smaller denominations.

While gold ETFs offer several advantages, the current gold-price dynamics demand a deeper look into whether holding onto these investments is still a profitable strategy.

Have Gold Prices Peaked? A Look at Supply and Demand Scenario

Gold prices have been on a strong upward trajectory over the last few years; in the past 12 months alone, the gold price is up more than 40%. This up-move in gold is not normal and is driven by economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, trade war causing inflation fears, but a crucial factor to consider is the relationship between supply and demand, which could indicate whether this rally is nearing its end.

Demand Factors

  1. Central Bank Purchases

Central banks, especially in emerging markets, have been major players in the gold rally. Notably, China’s aggressive gold purchases have been a significant factor in pushing prices higher. According to the World Gold Council, central banks added over 1,000 tons of gold in 2024, which is the 3rd consecutive year where central banks have purchased more than 1,000 tons of gold in a year.

At the start of 2025, central banks are continuing their gold purchase-

  • Central banks reported 18 tons of net purchases at the start of 2025 
  • Emerging market central banks remain at the forefront of net buying, with Uzbekistan, China, and Kazakhstan the top three buyers 
  • Poland and India also continue to accumulate gold reserves in 2025; both central banks added 3 tons to their respective reserves in January.
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Data: World Gold Council
  1. Investor Demand

Gold’s safe-haven appeal has drawn immense interest from both institutional and retail investors. Gold ETFs have seen significant inflows, reflecting strong demand. Global physically backed gold ETFs reported strong inflows in March, totaling USD 8.6bn. This helped drive total Q1 flows of USD 21bn (226t) to the second-highest quarterly level in dollar terms, only behind Q2 2020’s US$24bn (433t). 

North America (61%) and Europe (22%) represented the bulk (83%) of net inflows in Q1. Asia contributed 16%, which is impressive, given that the region’s total assets under management (AUM) only account for 7% of the global total. Additionally, the first quarter flows in Europe of USD 4.6bn stood out as the strongest quarter since Q1 2020, resulting in an AUM that reached another all-time high of USD 345bn, representing an increase of 13% in March and 28% through the first quarter.

Additionally, collective holdings rose to 3,445 tons by the end of March, a 92t addition in the month and 226t higher through Q1, reaching the highest month-end level since May 2023 and 470t shy of the record of 3,915t in October 2020. 

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  1. Jewelry and Industrial Demand

While gold jewelry demand remains stable, gold also has industrial applications (e.g., electronics), which contribute to its baseline demand. Despite gold getting expensive, jewelry demand remains steady, while there is a slight uptick in industrial demand.

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Supply Constraints

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Gold supply is relatively inelastic. Global mine production has plateaued, and any sudden supply surge is unlikely. This tight supply situation generally supports elevated gold prices.

The heavy demand by central banks and restricted supply suggest there is still a bullish undertone for gold prices. However, this does not mean a guaranteed endless upward momentum.

The Impact of Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Global Politics

When geopolitical tensions sore, gold becomes a go-to asset for investors seeking stability. With military escalations already in place, The U.S.-China levying tariffs on each other escalated into a full-fledged trade war, and tariff hikes after US president Trump’s liberation day announcements have created economic uncertainties, bolstering gold prices in recent months (though he paused the tariffs on most other countries excluding China, but uncertainties are still there).

How Growth Slowdowns Influence Gold

Another element to consider is the ongoing fear of recession in major economies, including the United States. Earlier, the thoughts were that, as the central banks are gradually turning less hawkish or dovish in some countries after a series of interest rate hikes and a long pause, this would bring a temporary pause to gold’s gains, but this did not play out.

Strange as it may sound, but this gold rally has defied most of the economists and their books, the USD index touched a new high, and Stock markets in the US soared to new highs as President Trump took office, usually a strong dollar and a rally in risky assets like stocks and cryptos means a demand slowdown for gold but this time it was not the case, primary reason was central banks especially in China and other major economies were boosting their gold kitty.

Institutional Investors’ Positioning and Sentiment

One of the best ways to gauge the sustainability of gold’s rally is by examining institutional investors’ positions. Notably, large hedge funds and asset managers have gradually reduced their gold exposure, signaling skepticism about further price rises.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report, a valuable resource that captures institutional sentiment, has recently shown more bearish positioning in gold futures. This suggests that “smart money” might be viewing the current elevated prices as unsustainable, hinting at a possible reversal in the medium term.

On the one hand, gold futures saw some bearish positions getting added in March as COMEX futures declined marginally by US$400mn (5t) likely on profit taking, but on the other, ETF buying was as usual, US funds led the charge with US$6bn (67t) of net inflows, followed by Europe, then Asia with approximately US$1bn each.

To look at it more accurately, we will take the help of history and the fundamentals of gold.

The Prospect of Gold Rallying Further

With all these factors in mind, the question becomes clearer—is gold near the end of its rally, or is there still some upside left?

Arguments for Further Upside

The behavior of gold when compared to other commodities has changed over time; now, some even do not consider gold as a traditional commodity, for a traditional commodity, as the saying goes, “high prices cure high prices,” but not for gold, gold’s sovereign and safe heaven status, its industrial use, and consumers willingness to hold and reluctance to sell make it a sophisticated commodity that is free from traditional price movements.

Here are some key arguments working in favor of more upside for gold.

  • Continued central bank gold buying, particularly from China, will likely maintain strong demand. Central bank buying will continue as long as there is a trade deal between countries, especially between the US, China, and European countries.
  • Any resurgence in geopolitical tensions can quickly rekindle gold’s safe-haven appeal. As long as there is no breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine standoff or no permanent peace deal in the Middle East, gold’s safe-haven status will keep attracting investors.

What does the data say?

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The above chart shows that the US ETF is still very far from the levels of 2011 and 2020 when compared to the US gold ETFs as % of total ETFs. Similarly, S&P 500 forward P/E is overvalued compared to 2011, and any sudden shock in the macro front or further earnings slowdown could deepen the equity market fall, diverting more investors towards gold.

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In another major research, the data team of Bloomberg and World Gold Council showed how long a gold rally lasted in the past and how much rally, in percentage terms, occurred during that period. It is significant to note that the biggest rally in terms of time happened between 2000 and 2010, lasting 445 weeks. In that period, gold prices rallied 283%.

In terms of price rally, the biggest rally came in the 1976-1980 period, where gold prices rallied 666%; this rally lasted for 178 weeks. Based on this data, we at FinMinutes Research calculated the average of the rally period in price jumps in all of these gold rallies. The average time taken for a rally to conclude is 190 weeks, and the average price appreciation of 223%.

To evaluate the performance of gold rallies in the post-2000 period, to gain another perspective, the average duration of the rally is 240 weeks, and the average gain in this period is 154%. So, going by the past data, this rally have still legs to go as the current rally is just 130 weeks old with a gain of 90%.

Pullback Scenario

  • Institutional investors started to cut their positions, though small, but data showed profit booking, still no sign of shorts getting added, can be a starting counterargument to gold’s continued rally.
  • If global trade wars de-escalate, the risk premium built into current gold prices may wane.
  • Other assets, such as equities or even cryptocurrencies, may begin to look more attractive as economic uncertainty settles.

Latest Updates

In a significant development, the US President indicated that the Russia-Ukraine peace deal is looking closer than ever as the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, indicated, he is ready to start direct peace talks with the Ukrainian counterpart if his demands are listened to without ifs and buts, and the US seems ready to sincerely listen to Russia’s demand.

In another major development today, the IMF cut the world’s GDP growth forecast, citing global uncertainty and trade wars. The IMF also reduced the growth forecast for major world economies like the US, China, and India. But, if the global normalcy returns on the geopolitical and trade tariffs front, as the efforts are ongoing, this could positively surprise on the growth front. If the world returns to normalcy, sanctions on Russia will be removed, providing support for inflation.

Similarly, any positive news on the tariff front will also work well for risk assets and will be negative for gold, as the uncertainty premium built into the gold price will vanish.

Should You Book Profits on Gold ETFs Now?

So, what’s the verdict? If you’ve been holding onto gold ETFs during the recent price surge, there’s certainly a case to be made for booking profits. This especially applies if your ETF holdings are overweight in your portfolio or if you anticipate a rotation into other higher-yielding asset classes.

At the same time, gold remains a critical hedge against black swan events, inflation, and political instability. The decision to sell or hold depends on your financial goals and risk tolerance. A balanced approach could involve partially reducing your exposure while retaining some position for long-term stability.

What’s Next? Make Data-Driven Decisions

Investing is all about timely decisions based on the available data and your objectives. Here’s how to make an informed choice about your gold ETF holdings:

  • Keep an eye on central bank purchasing trends (China, in particular).
  • Consistently monitor institutional positioning, such as hedge fund activity, and track Gold ETF inflows.
  • Assess how gold fits into your overall asset allocation strategy.
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Charts suggest $3,500 is immediate resistance, and if a fall happens from here, it will be swift as no major support till $3,090-3110. High probability of gold prices touching $2750-2850 if the current rally fades, but if $3,500 is taken out, expect the prices to soar to $3,650-3750 in no time.

TVS Emerald Launches ‘TVS Emerald Connect’ App to Enhance Home-Buying Experience

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TVS-Emerald

TVS Emerald, a leading real estate developer, has launched TVS Emerald Connect, a pioneering mobile application designed to enhance the homeownership experience by integrating all property-related services into a single, user-friendly platform. This comprehensive app serves as a one-stop solution for all home-related needs of customers, setting a new standard for customer engagement in real estate with capabilities unmatched in the market. Currently available for Android users, with an iOS version forthcoming, the app offers a multitude of innovative features for homebuyers.

‘TVS Emerald Connect’ provides users with hassle-free access to all payment receipts and transaction history, along with timely updates on property construction progress. The app includes a refer-a-friend feature with exclusive rewards and benefits and allows users to unlock exclusive deals and offers across all TVS Emerald properties. It serves as a centralized hub for all property-related documents, enabling customers to raise and track service requests for any post-booking support. Additionally, the app provides quick access to installment plan details and payment schedules through a user-friendly interface designed for seamless navigation and convenience.

Sriram Iyer, Director & CEO of TVS Emerald, said, “At TVS Emerald, we are committed to delivering exceptional experiences to our customers. The launch of TVS Emerald Connect is a significant step towards our vision of integrating technology with real estate to offer a seamless and convenient homeownership journey. This app is not just a platform; its a commitment to our customers, ensuring they have complete control over their home-buying experience, from booking to handover, at their fingertips. By leveraging our legacy of trust, value, and service, we aim to set new benchmarks in customer engagement and satisfaction, making the dream of owning a home a more transparent and fulfilling reality.”

TVS Emerald continues to set new benchmarks in customer experience, reinforcing its commitment to innovation, transparency, and trust in the real estate sector. This proactive approach aims to further enhance customer engagement and streamline the home-buying journey.

About TVS Emerald Ltd.

TVS Emerald is engaged in the business of developing residential projects and self-sustaining communities with presence in Chennai and Bengaluru. TVS Emerald brings the foundation of Trust, Value and Service and has delivered 5.4 million sq.ft. of residential developments in Chennai and has 8.2 million sq.ft. of under development projects.